In a four-way matchup between Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton carries 42%, Trump 37%, Johnson 13% and Stein 5%. That represents nearly no change for either Clinton or Trump, but a 4-point bump for Johnson. “But Johnson’s support outpaces that of a typical third party candidate and may prove to have more staying power”, CNN polling director Jennifer Agiesta writes. His message continues to target white voters, and particularly white male voters, even as they have shrunk considerably as a share of the overall electorate.
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Unlike past presidential elections where candidates take the week off the campaign trail during the opposing candidate’s convention, Clinton will be on the road.
Trump hopes to produce a convention that helps to alleviate questions about his fitness to be president among many Americans but he starts facing an enormous deficit on that issue. Trump won the Republican nomination in large part because of his appeal to disgruntled whites. It’s very unlikely, partly because everything we know about Hillary Clinton’s campaign suggests an iron message discipline unlike what we are seeing in Cleveland.
Sixty-one percent said they have a somewhat unfavorable or unfavorable view of Trump, with 52 percent saying the same about Clinton.
Other surveys this month have shown a closer race, including a CBS/New York Times poll that found Clinton and Trump tied.
Deciding on how to poll third-party and independent candidates can be tricky ― research finds that, while surveys that don’t include those candidates by name tend to understate their support, those that do include them often overestimate how much backing they’ll receive.
“My opponent may have a different view but there’s nowhere I’d rather be than right here with all of you”, she said.
Our own USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak poll, which tracks voter preferences daily, now has the two effectively tied, with Trump ahead by less than a point. He holds his widest edge over Clinton on handling ISIS, and also holds an edge on handling taxes.
“This madness has to stop”, said Clinton, “We have to change”.
Cornell William Brooks, president and CEO of the NAACP, said this year’s convention might be one of the most important in the organization’s history.
Trump’s newly minted running mate, Pence, receives a tepid welcome to the race, 43% say he’s an excellent or pretty good pick, below the majorities who said so in initial surveys following the announcement of Paul Ryan in 2012, Sarah Palin in 2008 or Dick Cheney in 2000. NAACP leaders say presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump turned down an invitation to the Cincinnati event.
“We have heard a lot of troubling things from Donald Trump”, she said.
The CNN/ORC poll was conducted July 13-16, surveying 872 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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Quinnipiac polled 1,104 registered voters in NY by phone from July 13 to 17, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
