The second edition of football’s “Final Four” is so far looking less chaotic and the mood is less antagonistic than last year’s debut playoff featured a last weekend switch from a playoff committee that was more scrutinized than the College of Cardinals, even though it worked out wonderfully. Notre Dame is 10-2, no small achievement given the injuries that would have decimated most teams.
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First scenario (and probably the most likely scenario of them all) – All the top teams (sans Oklahoma due to the Big 12 not having a conference championship game), win out, and the Top 4 stays the same.
In a world where you can never make everyone happy, the College Football Playoff is doing everything it can to give the best teams in the nation an equal and fair shot at the title.
Obscured and peeved earlier this century while the SEC won seven consecutive national titles, the Big Ten holds down half of the top six spots and all three of the positions (4-5-6) considered most intriguing. Florida? A two-loss Florida team, even as SEC champions, aren’t getting into the playoff.
Florida State: The Seminoles are probably locked into the Peach Bowl unless North Carolina upsets Clemson and the ACC doesn’t get a team in the playoff.
Ultimately, Long said the committee felt Clemson’s two wins over top-10 teams and undefeated record played a factor in the decision. When asked whether the committee has discussed the relative strengths of schedule of North Carolina and Ohio State (their SOS is nearly identical in the Sagarin ratings) in making their rankings, Long said the committee does not consider the Sagarin ratings and doesn’t know how they are calculated, and added that “In the multiple number of metrics we look at, they’re not close”.
Alabama (12-1) had it easy by comparison in the Southeastern Conference championship game against Florida.
Top-ranked Tigers are not quite a prohibitive favorite to win this game, meaning that a Carolina upset remains a reasonable possibility.
No worries of a repeat of past year for the Big 12, when it was the Power Five conference left out of the playoff. Iowa has only two wins over ranked opponents, but both were on the road, and they secured a spot in the conference title game by beating the same Nebraska squad on the road that Michigan State failed to beat.
That’s not to say it shouldn’t change drastically if North Carolina beats Clemson, but right now, it makes sense. Ohio State, 7. Stanford, 10.
To go to the Rose Bowl, Ohio State would only have to be ranked higher than the team that loses the Big 10 Championship game. It may not consider North Carolina to be one of the four best teams in the country.
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With an Iowa win, Ohio State runs the risk of being docked for its loss to Michigan State. Regardless, UNC will force its way into the discussion with a win-and No. 1 Clemson has a much tougher test on its hands than it appeared a couple months ago. Two-loss Stanford has not been quite able to recover from a season-opening loss to Northwestern.
