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Confidence lowest for 26 years as consumers feel Brexit blues

The group said people were on average gloomier about their own finances, the broader economy and whether now was a good time to make big purchases such as furniture and household appliances.

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An early “Brexit special” reading from GfK in the wake of the June 23 poll pointed to the biggest slump in confidence since 1994 and was one of the first data signals of the likely negative economic toll of the vote.

The survey, which dates back to 1974, saw its overall score drop from minus 1 to minus 12 – the sharpest month-by-month fall since March 1990.

Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov Reports, said: “The public are still absorbing the European Union referendum result but it is clear that consumer confidence has taken a significant and clear dive in the month after the Brexit vote”.

However, on a more positive note, he observed that the GfK Index continued to remain at a relatively “elevated level” by historic standards, although much depends on what happens in the future. The former voted to leave while the latter voted to remain. GDP was revealed to be up 0.6% in the second quarter, greater than the 0.4% growth seen in the previous three months, but more timely indicators pointed to falling confidence among auto factories, high street stores and in the construction industry.

The eurozone economic sentiment indicator (ESI) released by the European Commission rose to 104.6 in July from 104.4 in June, ahead of the expected decline to 103.5.

Still, July’s reading of minus 12 remains comfortably above the depths that consumer confidence sank during the recession of 2008 and 2009, and the slow recovery afterwards. United Kingdom drinks respondents were notably more pessimistic than their food counterparts, with 64.9% expressing reduced short-term confidence, versus 45.2% for food.

The report said that 25% of companies in the North West had yet to find any business opportunities from Brexit, while 59% were concerned about weaker demand prospects.

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“The lack of a clear strategy for the manufacturing sector over recent years has been of huge concern and it is encouraging to see Theresa May’s promise of a proper industrial strategy”, said Lawton.

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