Some establishment Republicans will decide it’s better to let Trump suffer a crushing loss and rebuild the party afterward, rather than tear it apart at the convention.
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A more recent poll, a January survey by California’s Field poll, found a very different race: Among likely Republican voters, Cruz had 25 percent to Trump’s 23 percent, a statistical tie, with Kasich almost invisible.
“Who the delegates are, as individual persons, becomes vital”, said Clay Barker, director of the Kansas GOP. “They are terrified, irrational and flailing wildly”.
Trump now has 673 delegates after winning a string of nominating contests, but if he wants to avoid a floor fight at the convention he needs the magic number of 1,237.
The most fundamental weakness in any organized effort to stop Trump in the remaining contests in the Republican nomination is the math after more than half the states have voted.
Former GOP candidate Lindsey Graham, who once said choosing between Trump and Cruz would be like picking between being shot and poisoned, made his choice.
A group of conservatives huddled in Washington Thursday morning to discuss ways to block the businessman.
But to appreciate where things stand, consider this assessment from Quin Hillyer, a conservative columnist who talked to Politico about the participants’ attitudes from the D.C. meeting.
Ohio Governor John Kasich is in last place, with 145 delegates.
After the Republican primaries on Tuesday, political pundits, analysts and gurus of any and all persuasions are examining the possibility of a contested national convention. The South Carolina Senator told CNN’s Dana Bash that he was now lining up behind the Texas Senator and would help raise money for him.
Under the Constitution, the outcome of the election would then be determined by Congress. The House of Representatives would select the President from among the top three candidates, with each state delegation getting one vote, while the Senate would choose the Vice President from the top two candidates. “What you find with Donald Trump is he’s a counter- puncher”. For one, given Hillary Clinton’s high unfavorable ratings and Trump’s willingness to adapt his message to fit changing political conditions, anything from an extremely close race to a total Clinton blowout seems possible in November. Her sweep of Tuesday’s five primary contests – including a slim lead in yet-to-be-called Missouri – was a harsh blow to rival Bernie Sanders, giving Clinton what her campaign manager described as an “insurmountable lead” in the delegate count. They long for a gathering where decisions are more crucial than who gets a prime-time speaking slot.
Clinton has at least 1,599 delegates to Sanders’ 844.
On the Republican side, so far only Cruz is advertising in the state, a relatively light $256,000, but he got a boost from an allied super PAC on Thursday that reserved $415,000 in Arizona and another $165,000 in Utah, according to CMAG.
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Cruz’s campaign has starting pushing the twitter hashtag #DuckingDonald, explaining in the statement that, “Donald can’t duck us for the rest of this campaign, and so we will happily press the issue until the public pressure becomes too much for him to bear”. Don’t be shocked if he starts making those deals in the coming days. “Trustworthy. What’s happened?” the narrator asks, later adding, “John Kasich is presidential”.
