The area of low pressure is expected to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico sometime on Monday, “where environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development”, forecasters wrote in Sunday’s Tropical Weather Outlook report. Models still forecast wind shear to decrease during the next day or two and for the depression to move into a more moist environment with modest strengthening as it approaches eastern North Carolina.
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A tropical wave is expected to move offshore from the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today, August 29 or tonight, and an east-northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near Cape Hatteras late Tuesday.
Winds could become gusty over the next 36 hours, though the storm is not expected to strengthen beyond a sustained wind of 45 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). “I support a forecast of TD 9 being a strong tropical storm near hurricane strength at landfall-70 miles per hour winds-until the models come into better alignment”. After moving into the Gulf, it’s forecast to turn north and northeast, potentially reaching the west coast of Florida on Thursday.
Businesses on North Carolina’s Outer Banks are warily watching tropical weather systems that could rain out one of the last busy weeks of the summer tourist season.
“It’s been around for a while in a disheveled state”, said Mark Wool, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.
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The system will funnel heavy rain across much of central and southern Florida this week, which could lead to flash flooding. It will then track just off the Carolina coast through the end of this week. Mariners are urged to remain in port. That will happen when the storm’s winds reach 39 miles per hour. All beach goers are strongly encouraged to stay out of the water.
