At present, there is an area of disturbed weather conditions over the Deep South which has the potential to churn out the next tropical system over the Atlantic basin.
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Some slight development is possible before the system moves inland over the southeastern United States in a couple of days.
The National Hurricane Center says a weak area of low pressure over north-central Florida now has just a 10 percent chance of formation.
Given the most current run of forecast modeling, the broad area of low pressure over northern Florida triggering our unsettled weather pattern will slowly migrate westward over the next 24 to 48 hours. How heavy the rain becomes will depend on how far west the area of low pressure tracks.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham said early Monday that scattered rain and storms will be in the forecast each day through the week, with 1-3 inches of rain possible over the next five days. Flash flooding could also occur in areas that receive rain amounts in excess of 3 inches in a short period of time. With the rain and increased cloud coverage, afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s for the most part, with a few places reaching 90.
Sunday is pretty much the same story as Saturday.
This system will be incredibly slow moving, nearly stationary, which is the major cause for concern when it comes to the flooding in Florida, but it also means that there won’t be anything to clear us out of our pattern either.
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While rain amounts will not be almost as high farther north into the Tennessee Valley, beneficial rain is still forecast. Tropical Storm Earl is blamed for six deaths in Mexico from a landslide, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Storms are moving slowly to the southwest, and due to the very high precipitable water values, we have seen some flooding in spots, including downtown Birmingham… Flood Watches are in effect through Tuesday along the Nature Coast from Cross City to Crystal River, extending north to Hamilton County along the Georgie border.
