And among those who say they have participated in nearly all of the caucuses for which they have been eligible – about 10% of Iowa adults – Trump leads 38% to 21% for Cruz, with Carson at 12% and Rubio at 11%.
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However, Trump also appears to be highly polarizing among Republican voters: 26 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
The report points out that evangelical voters make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, and they overwhelmingly back Cruz, with 30 percent to Trump’s 18 percent. It also may explain his rise over retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Trump.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was backed by 8 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich by 7 percent, Texas Sen.
The poll was conducted among registered voters, with the bulk of the interviews coming from those who are regular Republican primary voters. In 2012 both CNN and the New York Times exit polling showed that 57% of Iowa Caucus goers were born again Christian/evangelical.
On Twitter, many reporters speculated that a distraction from Cruz’s poll numbers was exactly what media-savvy, poll-obsessed Trump had intended.
Cruz gets much of his support from religious evangelicals and Tea Partiers – not a comforting thought for anyone preferring the presidency not fall into the hands of someone who hangs out near the right-wing lunatic fringe. Ted Cruz in Iowa, which holds the first caucuses on the nominating calendar on February 1. Carson avoided such condemnations, and told Tapper that if Trump wins the GOP nomination, Republican leaders would “have an obligation to respect the will of the people”.
But Trump’s advantage on foreign policy and handling ISIS is larger than his edge on handling the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief.
As he continued to make his pitch to Iowa voters, Carson, the onetime front-runner in in the state, did his best to counter that perception. The new poll put him in fourth place, at 13 percent.
Supporters of Donald Trump were even likelier to support these anti-Muslim measures, with 80 percent supporting mosque surveillance and 72 percent supporting a Muslim database.
Watch for Cruz and Rubio to be battling it out in Iowa from here on out. Not only is Cruz well-positioned in the early-voting states; he’s also ready to fight for votes across the country, including in the critical South. “In the end, I believe the final results will be even better than that!”
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“New Hampshire primary voters usually decide who they will vote for in the last weeks, or days of the campaign and it is no surprise that few likely Republican primary voters have made up their minds about who they will support in 2016”, they wrote.
