Warming waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño, are heading toward historic levels and forecast models show no signs of slowing by the time California’s rainy season hits this winter.
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Since 1951, there have been five winters with strong El Nio conditions, meaning ocean water at the equator that is significantly warmer than normal.
The PDO is primarily a sea surface temperature phenomenon that oscillates in the Pacific Ocean, usually switching from a warm or positive phase to a cool or negative phase every 20-30 years.
Forecasters say there’s a greater than 90 percent chance El Nino will continue through this winter, with its impact felt across the country and around the globe. It could be the strongest since the 1997-1998 pattern.
However, Thursday’s news, in the monthly El Nio report from NOAA and Columbia University, boosted hopes of drought-weary Californians.
“It could reach or exceed 2 degrees Celsius, a value we have only recorded three times in the last 65 years”, Halpert said on a conference call with reporters.
Another problem is that the Pacific Ocean west of California is substantially warmer than it was in 1997. The resulting El Nino (ehl NEEN’-yoh) changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.
They’re cautiously optimistic. Ryan Jacobsen, executive director of the Fresno County Farm Bureau, says farmers aren’t fooled by a common misconception that El Nino always translates into a wet winter.
The CPC added that across the contiguous, the effects of El Niño are likely to remain minimal during the remainder of the summer and increase into the late fall and winter.
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As we head into the next month or two, you will likely hear a lot of discussion about El Niño.
