Second, the beating taken by the Turkish economy and the plummeting Turkish lira over the past few months would have to witness some demonstrable recovery in order to appease a middle class betting on AKP’s promise of stability.
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Emboldened by its surprise election triumph, the AKP has since gone on the offensive against both the rebels and other opponents of Erdogan, including critical media. The president is now seeking constitutional amendments that would give more power to the president. There is a danger that such a move will instead deepen Turkey’s divisions.
The ruling AK Party regained its parliamentary majority in an election last Sunday, five months after it was deprived of single-party rule.
The president called the early elections after a vote in June delivered Turkey’s first hung parliament since 2002 and AKP-led coalition talks failed.
Sunday’s results don’t end the political and social divides that threaten Turkey.
Perhaps as he ruthlessly wields the power he knows he almost lost, Erdogan truly believes that he is simply giving the people, his people, what they want. He said they have conveyed this message also to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey was moving closer to serious consideration for European Union membership, opening up to foreign investment and growing economically. Hitherto it has played a major role in fuelling the Syrian civil war by providing arms and sanctuary to anti-Assad rebels and functioning as a conduit for western and Saudi weapons into Syria. There has been blowback.
Violence flared up in July between the guerrillas and government forces after a deadly bombing against activists in a Kurdish majority town, shattering a 2013 ceasefire reached after secret talks between Ankara and the PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan. Erdogan and the AKP, however, have demonstrated once again that they retain strong support in the country where Erdogan is seen as a modernising figure. That argument apparently convinced many voters. Turnout was a convincing 87 percent among the 54 million people eligible to vote. Additionally, will the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which holds 134 seats and forms the official opposition, be swayed toward AKP or further away? Violence has been escalating since July, after a two-year truce between the PKK and government forces collapsed. HDP, however, will be loath to support amendments to the constitution that would usher in a presidential system of government. He expressed determination to fight Kurdish rebels but was less clear-cut about his commitment to the shattered peace process. Meanwhile, Erdogan premised his campaign on fear mongering and presented himself as the best chance of “stability” for Turkey. If there is a dark side to the ballot for him, it is that he did not win the supermajority he needs to assure passage of his reforms by Parliament. Ethnic minority Kurds make up about 20% of Turkey’s population. They are extremely divisive within the country.
Recently, Hurriyet’s headquarters was attacked following criticism of the newspaper by Erdogan.
Turkey’s allies would like it to concentrate more on ISIL than the Kurds and while there is more communication than before with Peshmerga fighters, the Turkish army will fight the PKK on sight.
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The fate of the peace process may be tied to two other policy questions facing the new government.
