He said that the current global population of 7.3 billion was forecast to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, slightly above the last set of UN projections.
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India’s bigger population initially gives it the economic advantage of a demographic dividend or benefit from the increased productivity of the youth, but it will also put a greater stress on the resources of India’s area of 3.288 million sq kilometres compared to China’s 9.597 million sq kilometres. But in seven years, the populations of both are expected to reach 1.4 billion.
Much of the overall increase between now and 2050 is expected in high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, or in countries with large populations, the report said.
More than half of the increase will come from Africa, due to the higher birthrate, though India will become the most populous country, surpassing China.
Fast-growing Nigeria is to outstrip the US by about 2050 to become the country with the third largest population, the UN predicted.
Children under 15 years of age now make up 41 per cent of the population in Africa, while those aged between 15 and 24 years account for a further 19 per cent.
“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries presents its own set of challenges, making it more hard to eradicate poverty and inequality, to combat hunger and malnutrition, and to expand educational enrolment and health systems, all of which are crucial to the success of the new sustainable development agenda”. Declining fertility and rising life expectancy mean the world is getting greyer, and most regions will have an ageing population, starting with Europe where one third of the population is projected to be over 60 by 2050, the report said.
Brazil and Mexico, which are now among the world’s 10 most populous countries, will continue growing until 2050, when their populations will stand at 238 million and 164 million, respectively.
Half of the world’s population growth will be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Indonesia and Uganda. The report says Europe will lead the way, with more than 34 per cent of people there expected to be over 60 years old by 2050.
The revision report confirmed that substantial improvements in life expectancy have been made in recent years.
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Wu Hongbo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, who presented the report, said that learning the demographic alterations, which are possibly to occur in the coming years, is a chief factor in designing the new progressive program and enforcing it.
