The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released its 2015-2016 winter outlook today, which includes the months of December, January and February.
Advertisement
El Ninos are characterized by warm ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and shifting wind patterns that combine to influence winter weather. This year’s El Nino is expected to continue strengthening and is forecast to surpass the 1997-1998 record El Nino.
But a Met Office spokesman said: “There has been a few speculation that we may be in for a long, bitterly cold winter because an El is under way in the tropical Pacific”.
Those living in the north meanwhile might expect less than the 70 inches of average annual snowfall.
Since El Nino is only one of many players in the forecast, it’s to note (graphic above) that strong El Nino winters in Virginia can be highly variable.
Snow forecasts depend upon the strength and track of winter storms, which generally can not be predicted more than a week in advance, the Climate Prediction Center said.
That likely means another year of low snowpack, which will affect rivers, streams and fire conditions in the coming year.
Recent rain has slightly improved conditions on the Olympic Peninsula, although 100 percent of the state still is in drought, according to the weekly update from the U.S. Drought Monitor. For the northwestern counties, the average date of a first snow is Nov. 18 to Nov. 25.
They said Southern and Central California are very likely to get above-normal precipitation, but the likelihood drops off to 34 to 40 percent for the Sacramento Valley.
The chances of cooler than average temperatures are highest across the southern plains and southeast, with warmer than average weather possible across the west coast and northern third of the country.
“One season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought”.
Advertisement
America’s central states are usually less affected, and this year there is an equal chance of their temperature and rainfall going in either direction, the NWS said.
