Prevailing El Nino conditions are expected to reduce the number of cyclones across Australia year.
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Despite the prediction of fewer cyclones, the bureau urged all Australian residents to start their cyclone season preparations, as records dating back to the 1970s show at least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast each cyclone season.
“We know from history the devastating effect even small cyclones have had on our communities”, he added, “In January 2013, Oswald caused major flooding for virtually the entire Queensland coast as it tracked steadily south as an ex-tropical cyclone, or tropical low”, he said.
In Western Australia state, where past cyclones have brought some of the world’s biggest mines and shipping terminals to a standstill, there’s a 75-percent chance of fewer cyclones over the upcoming November. 1-April 30 period than in non-El Nino years, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Monday. “On average about four make landfall”, said Ms Imielska. Typically between about 15pc and 40pc of tropical cyclones in the Western region will have an impact upon the coast. In an average year the Northern region typically experiences three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions.
Iron ore prices typically rise when mines and ports shut until cyclones pass, temporarily cutting off supply – sometimes for days.
“Hopefully, there’ll be less downtime in that region for the ports and for the rigs, because it’s a very expensive course of action to shut them down”, he said. Around 40% of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern sub-region impact on the coast at a few stage in their life cycle.
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Countries east of the worldwide Date Line with an elevated risk of tropical cyclone included Tokelau, Samoa, Tuvalu and further east in the Northern Cook Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, and more broadly across French Polynesia, the outlook said.
