As estimated 100 million bushel increase in soybean production to the largest USA bean crop ever will be tough narrative for the bulls to overcome, particularly as exports lag last year’s pace and little seems to be standing in the way of a bean crop in Brazil that is, according to Conab, expected to exceed the USDA’s 100 mmt forecast.
Advertisement
USA soybean output in the 12 months that began September 1 will be 3.981 billion bushels, up from last year’s record harvest of 3.927 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday in a report. Based on November 1 conditions, soybean production in the Badger State is forecast at 93.0 million bushels, 18 percent above a year ago and four percent above the October forecast. Global wheat production was forecast at 733 million tonnes, the third consecutive record, the U.S.D.A. said. The corn end stocks view received an additional bump from cuts to exports, as well as domestic and ethanol usage, and came in above the high end of forecasts.
The increase in 2016 wheat carryover was the result of a 50-million-bu decline in projected exports from October to 800 million bus. Daily prices ranged from $2.80 in October to $3.90 in December.
The USDA corn yield number was above the average trade forecast of 168 bushels an acre, and the soybean yield number also was above the trade average estimate of 47.5 bushels an acre.
USDA’s November Crop Production report stayed true to the old adage that big crops get bigger.
Farmers are expecting 56 bushels of soybeans per acre this year, up from 54 bushels per acre last year. Corn basis has improved as much as 30 or 40 cents above harvest levels in a few locations near hungry processors. Iowa maintains its corn production lead with 2.49 billion bushels.
There is also a growing understanding that the lift in global stocks is primarily in China, with those stocks being quarantined from global markets. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 82.4 million acres, unchanged from last month.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural commodities closed mixed on Thursday with soybeans and wheat extending modest gains to a second straight session and corn nearly unchanged. The 2014-15 estimate of USA ending stocks remained at 1.731 billion bushels.
“These are bearish reports all around, plain and simple”. In the first 9.5 weeks of the year, exports exceeded those of last year by 21 million bushels. First, soybean exports exceed corn and wheat combined. All three had an ending stocks increase that were greater than expected.
Advertisement
Wheat ending stocks were 911 million bushels, up 50 million bushels.
