Every few years, winds shift in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, warming the water more than usual. It warms the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, sometimes reaching an area greater than the size of the United States.
Advertisement
Past years were cooler than the temperatures that are now being experienced, which will impact the rain/snow boundary for any storms that materialize this winter, DWR says. But in the long run, our water situation doesn’t really change no matter what kind of winter we have.
The strongest El Nino on record occurred in 1997-1998.
The opposite, or cooling of Pacific ocean waters, is a “La Nia”. One individual even stated that it “has the potential of being the Godzilla El Nino”.
“We want the snowpack for sure”, said California’s state hydrologist, Maurice Roos. To be called an El Nino event, according to NOAA, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) must remain at or above 0.5°C (about 1°F) for at least three months across the region labeled Nino 3.4.
The weather occurrence became part of the public lingo in 1997 when it caused such destruction in the western part of the United States. Although El Niño could help with the drought situation, it can also bring severe weather including flooding, strong winds, thunderstorms and even mudslides. It simply fizzled out.
This year’s El Nino began in March and is forecast to last about a year.
There is now a 95 percent probability of El Nio being present through the end of 2015, and an 85 percent probability it will continue into 2016, according to the report.
Advertisement
El Nino affects the strength and position of the jet stream, tilting the odds for more rain than average along the West coast and in the Southeast during the winter. “And more importantly for California … one season of above normal rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought”. Contact him at 408-920-5045.
