State climatologist Michael Anderson agreed, saying in a statement that California “cannot count on potential El Niño conditions to halt or reverse drought conditions”.
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The major 1997-98 El Nino resulted in warmer temperatures in the Northeast, including Maine, and less snow, but the downside was freezing rain and ice, which contributed to one of the biggest natural disasters in the state’s history.
“The real message is that it’s likely to be a strong event”, Halpert said of the El Nino pattern that will persist into next spring.
The strongest El Nino on record occurred in 1997-1998. El Nino allows the Eastern trade winds to weaken.
“We don’t know if it will go away”, he said.
“I just don’t want folks to think they don’t have to conserve because El Nino will save us, or to not understand that a strong El Nino has a downside”.
“A value that we’ve only recorded three times in the last 65 years”, Halpert said when referencing the water temperature increase. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average chances for a warmer-than-usual winter.
Even with the anticipated El Nino, California still won’t be clear of the statewide drought.
A so-called “Godzilla El Nino” could bring chaos including floods, drought and wildfires to large parts of the world this winter, according to weather experts. Torrential warm winter storms will help fill dams, but much of the water could run off to the ocean, particularly if dams are nearing full capacity at the time.
“It’s important to bear in mind that the correlation between El Nino and precipitation are far from flawless, even in places with relatively high correlations such as Southern California and Arizona”, Werner said.
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This El Niño event could give California the much needed rainfall it so desperately yearn for as it continuously suffer from the current record-breaking drought. Daniel Berlant of the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection says crews already have battled 1,500 more fires than a normal year.
