On the other hand, if the storm’s impact remains confined to the relatively more rural and conservative northwestern corner of the state, as is now forecast, it may actually help Trump and Sanders: The more conservative candidates in their respective parties, Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton have more support in that part of the state. In this race, the markets have been slow to take Trump’s candidacy seriously, and he became the market front-runner only in the past couple of weeks, even as he has led national polls since mid-2015. Trump certainly fits that bill for Republicans and Sanders, though he has been in Washington for decades, is hardly your typical Democrat.
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“Trump holds his own, while Sen”. But on the Democratic side, delegates are awarded not as a percentage of the state’s total support, but instead are “awarded proportionately, based on statewide and congressional district voting”, according to the Chicago Tribune.
Business executive Trump leads with 31% while Cruz has 24%, giving Trump a larger margin over the Texas senator than he had a week ago. “The higher the turnout, the more likely it is that Donald Trump has a huge caucus night”, Matt Strawn, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party. If Sanders takes Iowa and continues on into New Hampshire, he will continue to challenge Clinton.
Cruz came here to Greene County to complete what he said is a tour of all of Iowa’s 99 counties before the caucus. “They don’t have an organization that is perceptible”, he told Fox News.
But the big question, can Trump’s enthusiam translate to votes or can caucus-goers still be swayed in the final hours?
In 2008, Democrats shattered records with almost 240,000 participants in the caucus, far surpassing the 125,000 in 2004.
Something else to watch for: If anyone places a “strong” third in the Republican field (it would give them some momentum going into the New Hampshire primary on February 9), USA Today notes.
Trump’s lead in New Hampshire shows little sign of abating, but as in Iowa, recent polling there suggests a sizable chunk of the electorate has doubts about him as the party’s standard bearer. “I will apologize to nobody for using every tool we can to encourage Iowa voters to come out and vote”, he said. Rubio scored 17 percent, up from 15 percent in the January 26 poll. Republican candidate Marco Rubio said late Sunday that he’ll speak at three caucus sites Monday – an event center, a community shelter and a church – before the Iowans gathered cast their votes. And delegates are awarded through a formula based on how candidates do in precincts all over the state.
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Trump runs ahead of Cruz, 40 percent to 22 percent, among first-time GOP caucus goes, while Republicans who have attended prior caucuses narrowly favor Cruz over Trump, 26 percent to 25 percent, according to the poll.
