The existing policies and strong engagement by nations that submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) ahead of Paris climate meeting will limit anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 2030. At present, 155 countries have submitted their plans.
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But in this year’s report, a summary of which was released Friday, UNEP says 52 billion tons in 2020 is consistent with the 2-degree target. Countries must be ambitious and build on growing momentum toward climate action in the lead up to a landmark climate change conference in Paris next month, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said Wednesday.
However, even if all countries’ conditional and unconditional plans for emission cuts are implemented fully, emissions could rise to 54 billion tonnes in 2030, leaving a gap of 12 billion tonnes, the report said.
Countries have made “an historic level of commitment” with their pledges, UNEP executive director Achim Steiner said in a statement. “We are beginning to bend the curve, but…it is not yet enough”.
To stay within the 2C limit, which scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, global emissions levels should not exceed 42 billion tonnes in 2030.
UNEP chief scientist Jacqueline McGlade told The Associated Press that the earlier assessments weren’t wrong, rather they were based on emissions scenarios that are “no longer realistic”.
This year’s report is the first to take into account emission cuts promised by nations ahead of the November 30-December 11 Paris summit, tasked with delivering the first-ever universal climate pact. It shows that the preparation of the INDCs has incentivized the exploration of links between development and climate, and the development of new national climate polices, and may be considered as the first step in a transition towards low-carbon economies. Hopes are building that this mechanism will make it into the final Paris Agreement, following a joint declaration of support for the idea from China and France last week.
The report said enhanced energy efficiency and expanded use of renewable energy technologies for power production will be critical to close the emission gaps. Other key sectors emphasized in the studies also include forestry, agriculture and waste. However, a report released by the United Nations is suggesting that even if all those promises are kept, we might not see the situation changing for better.
Since past year, there have been a large number of reported weather incidents directly related to climate change caused by human intervention, with factors such as burning coal, methane gas, and auto emissions.
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Finally, the report finds that the impact of actions by global Cooperative Initiatives – such as the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, the Compact of Mayors, and the Cement Sustainability Initiative – can also be significant.
