Professor Norpoth admits that his prediction is not shared by many pollsters, with most showing Ms Clinton just ahead of Mr Trump – one by as many as 12 points.
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Trump’s surge in the polls comes as the Republican nominee has made a blitz in the state, hosting rallies in a number of Florida locations between October 24 and 25. Among women voters in Texas, the two candidates are tied. In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average in the Sunshine State, Clinton’s edge has been eroded from 4 percentage points on October 21 to 1.6 points now. Those polls led the political site, RealClear Politics, to move Texas from the “lean Trump” column to tossup status on Sunday.
Earlier today, in a piece called “The post-Trump GOP”, I said I’m convinced that Hillary Clinton will be elected president.
Forty-three percent of Trump voters said they would blame corruption if he lost, compared to just 35 percent who said they would believe Clinton won fairly.
Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and The Washington Post/Survey Monkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, would lead Trump 272 to 181 electoral votes in states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favor of either major party’s nominee.
Trump’s dip among young voters is troubling for his campaign, which most recent other polls show is dwindling other than in his main uneducated white male base.
More Republicans now think Clinton, rather than him, will win the presidency, as their party’s candidate struggles with difficulties including allegations of sexual misconduct and his suggestion he may not honour the outcome of the election.
Clinton has commanding leads among blacks (+77 points), unmarried women (+27), voters under 30 (+18), and women (+10). The Los Angeles Times also released a national poll of likely voters that showed him running a single percentage point ahead of Mrs. Clinton. But she was a Trump delegate to the Republican National Convention this summer and has generally aligned herself with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield).
Although voters are still more likely to have an unfavourable than a favourable view of Clinton, her ratings have improved slightly in the past month. But 91 per cent say they would support Pence in a head to head matchup against Clinton, and 93 per cent against Kaine.
“Early voting is underway so make sure, get out and vote, we don’t want to give this away”, Trump said, trashing Clinton as “a big liar”.
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The strength of the Democratic turnout effort appears to be paying dividends in states where voting is under way.
