The researchers conclude, “Whether the unexpectedly low growth rates in Carbon dioxide emissions observed in 2014 and 2015 are a first sign of an approaching global peak in emissions is unclear”.
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In addition to China, many emerging economies in the global South are based on coal, and emissions are likely to spike in the coming years.
The inexorable rise of carbon emissions has been a feature of the climate-change narrative for the past 20 years.
“The major contributor to this change has been decreased coal consumption in China”, said CISRO’s Pep Canadell, executive director of the GCP and co-author of the report.
The national pledges for climate action of 127 countries, also known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), announced before COP21 have been sparking debate on their potential for success in the global goal of holding future temperature increases to a 2 degrees Celsius target.
In early 2015, carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 400 parts per million which is the highest ever recorded in over 650,000 years.
“After sustained emissions growth over the past decade, China’s emissions growth slowed to 1.2 percent in 2014 and is expected to ecline by about four percent in 2015″. 2015 isn ” t quite over yet, so the values projected for this study could vary from actual carbon output for the year. “This year we expect total emissions to flatten or drop slightly, despite strong growth in gross domestic product worldwide”. India’s reliance on coal has been increasing steadily for the past five years, the report said.
“China is now the world’s largest user of wind energy, and will soon surpass Germany as the largest developer of solar”, he said.
According to lead author of the study, Earth system science professor, Rob Jackson of Stanford University, carbon dioxide emissions were lessened during economic recession and this event would be the first decline during a time when global economies are growing fast. Financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund have been established to help invest in renewable energy and more sustainable infrastructure in the developing world, but this may not be enough.
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Researchers said they do not believe carbon emissions have peaked for good, because growing economies still rely heavily on coal. On particular issue is whether the OECD will be willing to “finance the transition to a carbon-free society for the rest of the world”.
