Greeks have been bombarded with dire warnings of what a “No” vote could mean for their future in Europe.
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“Now it’s only the banks, but if there’s a run on supermarkets and fuel starts running out, it could lead to riots, to chaos, even to a coup by the sort of military junta, which seized the country in 1967”, Athens lawyer Georgiadis Aris said.
Mr. Tsipras reiterated his claim that a “no” victory in the referendum would mean a “continuation of the negotiations” with creditors, and a deal “with better terms”.
The document released in Washington on Thursday said Greece’s public finances will not be sustainable without substantial debt relief, possibly including write-offs by European partners of loans guaranteed by taxpayers.
“As far as I’m concerned, Greece will not leave the euro“.
European leaders say a “no” vote would destroy the basis for talks, and put Greece on a fast-track out of the euro. If there’s a “yes” vote on Sunday – they could get the cash injection they need.
Here’s a look at the events that each vote might trigger.
The assessment, in a preliminary draft of the IMF’s latest debt sustainability report, underlines the scale of the problems facing Athens, whatever the result of Sunday’s referendum on the bailout offered by creditors last month.
Tuesday, June 30: Tsipras seeks a 30-billion-euro deal with the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to cover state financing needs and restructure Greece’s crushing debt. “Our government is a liability”, said George Koptopoulos, a 70-year-old retired university professor.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said earlier, however, that Sunday’s referendum was not a vote on whether Greece will remain in the 19-nation eurozone. If the government does not collapse, it could try to build a new coalition with other parties, Varoufakis hinted. Greece owes a total of €242bn to its creditors, according to a calculation by Reuters, based on official figures – a level of debt many economists see as untenable. “Greece’s place in the Eurozone and in the European Union is non-negotiable”, Varoufakis wrote on his personal blog. The global Monetary Fund has said it will not get involved in a third bailout unless it includes substantive debt relief for Greece. He insisted Greece would have to make efforts of its own in return for any aid.
“A new agreement will likely take time and the ultimate outcome may require even greater fiscal and structural commitments than the existing proposal”, said George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank.
However, there may be one large obstacle to overcome first – political uncertainty in Greece.
By Griff Witte, ATHENS – Greece’s highest administrative court ruled Friday in that a referendum planned for Sunday is constitutional, clearing the last serious hurdle before Greeks go to the polls for a vote in that could set the country’s direction for decades.
His opponents accuse Tsipras of gambling Greece’s future with a rapid-fire plebiscite that a major European rights watchdog says falls short of worldwide standards of fairness.
Already, Tsipras” coalition is crumbling as a succession of deputies from the right-wing Independent Greeks, his junior partners, have backed the “Yes’ vote.
The head of the country’s banking association said that Greek banks have a “liquidity cushion” of €1bn – but funds beyond Monday depend on the European Central Bank. Rather, the risk increases the longer there is a deadlock in talks. Its charter allows it to give Greece a bit of leeway through more time to settle its debt.
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Evgenia Bouzala, a Greek born in Germany, said she was considering shutting down her olive oil export business because of the financial turmoil.
