(There were, for instance, six polls released in August in New Hampshire, with Clinton leads of 5, 6, 9, 9, 10, and 15.) New Hampshire also has a bit more of a magnified effect on the overall odds because it’s potentially the pivotal point in the quest for 270 (though Pennsylvania is probably the best answer for that, because our average is Clinton +5 in Pennsylvania while it’s +6 in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia). Trump is viewed positively by 41 percent of voters in the state.
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The pollster found Trump leads by 23 points in rural Kansas and by 7 points in suburban Kansas. A Bloomberg Politics survey of OH voters released Wednesday morning found Trump ahead by five points, identical to the margin in this survey of OH voters, and Quinnipiac University surveys released shortly after Labor Day showed an even contest in Florida with Trump up four points in Ohio. Half of them said Clinton’s health will not affect their vote, while a quarter of them said it will make them less likely to vote for her. Among registered voters, the Democratic nominee was five points ahead, at 46 to 41 percent.
“No doubt the pneumonia will pass, but like a nagging cough that just won’t go away, Donald Trump defies every remedy Hillary Clinton throws at him”, Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, said in a press release. At the time, she was consistently reaching 50 percent support.
“They’re both hitting ceilings of support due to their hugely negative favorability ratings”, said GOP pollster David Winston. The Democratic nominee is leading Trump among registered voters, though.
-Ronald Brownstein looks at Hillary Clinton’s challenge to win over millennials.
With national polls as close as they now are, that could easily put Donald Trump into the lead, a proposition that can’t possibly make the Democratic National Committee, already seemingly in panic mode, very happy.
Trump also again took up the banner of one tax change that Democrats have pushed for in recent years, eliminating the “carried interest” loophole that allows hedge fund managers to pay a smaller tax rate.
In Florida, Clinton leads by 2.7 points in the RealClearPolitics average, down from 4.5 points in early August. Whites without a college degree are strong supporters of Trump (58 percent back him), while Clinton leads Trump among white voters with a college degree. Clinton is ahead of Trump among voters under 30 but she is not getting the level of support Barack Obama received in 2012.
Indeed, Trump’s unfavorable ratings have gone up among college educated whites. Voters focused on immigration and terrorism vote overwhelmingly for Trump.
The CBS/NYT survey was conducted from September 9-13.
The CBS News/New York Times survey found Clinton had just a two-point edge (46 to 44 percent) over her Republican rival in a two-way match-up among likely voters. Independent American Party candidate Tom Jones has 4 percent support.
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Incidentally, as of Wednesday, only 38 percent of Kansan Trump supporters say they will cast their vote as a vote against the Democrat.
