In fact, Mike Halpert, deputy director for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said it “could be among the strongest El Ninos in the historical record”, which dates back to 1950.
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What is El Nino, and why is it important?
Further, the NOAA reports an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring.
All computer models point to El Nino remaining in place through spring of 2016 and predictions also call for a strong event peaking in late fall or early winter. El Nino weakens the Eastern trade winds propelling the warm water to reach the South American coast via the Pacific Ocean.
The broad-brush El Nino forecast for the Columbia Basin is not a good one, considering there could be conditions that might match or exceed this year’s conditions – above normal temperatures that led to a “snow drought” across the region.
As Southern California bakes under a heat wave meteorologists are betting on a wet and wild winter driven by an El Nino of biblical proportions.
The “Godzilla” El Nino is predicted to be the strongest such weather event on record and could have a significant impact on temperatures and precipitation this winter.
Average land and sea-surface temperatures worldwide were 0.38 degrees above the 1981-2010 average, easily exceeding the previous record July anomaly of 0.30 degrees set in 1998, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
During El Nino years, changing circulation patterns result in the Pacific Ocean absorbing less heat and even releasing some of its stored warmth to the atmosphere.
Chris Brandolino, a forecaster from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said the El Nino disrupts large scale patterns, and will potentially cause mixed weather this summer.
“If [the El Nino] continues to build it will have tremendous impact – not just over North America, but over the entire planet”, Mr Patzert says.
If you were around for one of these previous strong El Ninos’, you probably remember the flooding of freeways and the damage to piers and waterfront homes.
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It would take 2.5 to 3 times the normal amount of rain to make up California’s current water deficit, Werner said.
