Hurricane Hunters flew the storm on Wednesday and while finding areas producing tropical storm force winds, they have yet been able to find a closed center of circulation so it remains nameless.
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It remains poorly organized as upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for any development. However, as Gaston moves into more favorable conditions over the weekend, it is expected to intensify this weekend.
That’s why it’s time to monitor, pay attention and stay aware until there is more certainty in what exactly the disturbance will develop into, if it ever does. However, it is becoming increasingly likely that it will move through the Bahamas and head for South Florida. The U.S. National Hurricane Center says weakening is expected Thursday or Friday. An area of high pressure will steer the disturbance towards Florida and possibly the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest runs of the EURO model seem to favor the development of a major hurricane and keep it along the west coast of Florida before moving north by Tallahassee; however, the GFS model prevents a tropical storm from even forming and keeps Invest 99L as a tropical wave. There are great uncertainties on any projection beyond Florida and would be mere conjecture at this point.
Because it is so far away from land, no watches or warnings have been issued with this storm, and so far it is not yet forecast to make landfall.
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Meanwhile, forecasters are keeping an eye on a low-pressure system about 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico, which could become a tropical system over the weekend.
