Though Republicans have gained ground on predictions of unity, they remain far less likely than Democrats to see their party as united now (35% of Democrats say so vs. 16% of Republicans). Of the three, only the last one shows any movement towards Trump, which is interesting since their sample is D+10.
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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in the latest national poll of the upcoming presidential election.
“But Mrs. Clinton’s shifting and inaccurate explanations of her email practices at the State Department appear to have resonated more deeply with the electorate”, the Times wrote.
Those are some strong, strong headwinds.
Clinton beat Trump in a one-on-one matchup 46%-41% in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday that had a 3.1-percentage-point margin-of-error. Clinton’s numbers are not quite so negative – 42 favorable and 54 unfavorable. In the course of 10 months, he hasn’t improved by even a single point in convincing people that he’s ready for the job. Among Republicans, 44% say they’d prefer someone other than Trump, while 44% of Democrats say they’d rather see Vermont Sen. Fully 72 percent said yes. The poll also asked whether they saw Trump as biased against women and minorities. Meanwhile, Clinton is seen as qualified to serve as president by a 56 percent majority of voters. Then WaPo asked the key question: Which is a bigger problem? I think he relied on her. Bernie Sanders, and the announcement by the Federal Bureau of Investigation that Clinton would not face charges for her use of a personal email server while secretary of state. More than 6-in-10 Republicans say they disapprove of efforts to change convention rules so that delegates are no longer bound by the results of their state’s primary or caucus. We live in unpredictable times. (WaPo has him at eight.) Johnson continues to hurt both major-party candidates about equally, though. Trump leads by 15 percentage points among white voters while Clinton has a huge 52-point lead among nonwhite voters. As for GOP party unity, the data among the three polls is mixed. Half of all registered voters say they have strongly unfavorable views of Trump, while 47 percent say they have strongly unfavorable views of Clinton – the highest ever in a Post-ABC poll for her.
Both Clinton and Trump have bumped up their support among those who did not back them through the nomination process.
Trump heads to the Republican national convention after naming Indiana Governor Mike Pence, a social conservative with strong appeal to many traditional Republican voters, as his vice presidential running mate. They’ve both taken major damage over the last two months, Hillary from Emailgate and Trump from his “Mexican judge” blather in June. Either way, if you believe WaPo there are still more Clinton voters who are voting for her than there are Trump voters who are voting for him. That’s not that surprising, considering most polls show Americans support comprehensive immigration reform and that even on the right there’s some opposition to Trump’s “mass deportation” plan.
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Nearly 8-in-10 say his selection won’t make much difference in the way they vote in November, though those who say it does matter say Pence makes them more likely to back Trump than shy away from the presumptive GOP nominee.
