Some Republican voters in Iowa have received an interesting piece of mail in the past few days.
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The letters, which look like official documents, score the recipient based on their turnout in previous elections, giving both a percentage and a grade from A to F. The paper inside is bright yellow and in a bright red box on the top of the page it reads “Voting Violation”.
“You’ve never actually faced voters before”. Their scores are published below and many of them will see your score as well.
It urges the reader to “Caucus on Monday to improve your score” before warning: “A follow-up notice may be issued following Monday’s caucuses”. Ted Cruz and a lineup of other opponents. Photos are available here and here. Iowans have to show up at their caucus site at a specific time and in some cases stay there for a couple of hours. “The strength of this campaign is over 12,000 volunteers here in the state of Iowa”. The Democratic caucuses reflected the state’s racial profile, but the Republican ones were 99% white.
Here’s a warning about watching the Iowa caucuses: There’s not a lot to watch and the process is mostly incomprehensible.
When all is said and done, this Republican race in Iowa will ultimately depend on turnout. The strong showings by televangelist Pat Robertson in 1988 and journalist Pat Buchanan in 1996 and the recent wins by Huckabee and Santorum are the best examples of this. That hasn’t happened this year.
He has been in the news for his unconventional style but Republican Donald Trump’s unique campaigning for the presidential nomination will test the waters on Monday when the Iowa caucuses, the first in the nationwide procedure of choosing Barack Obama’s successor, will be held.
There has been a reported increase in registered Republicans – a promising sign for Trump. Historically, weak partisan identifiers are also less likely to vote.
The poll found that Trump’s support is strongest among men and among voters with lower levels of education. They too, are less likely to vote. Both Sanders and Trump are riding high on anti-establishment populism and finding new voters to pull into their coalitions more than they are winning the reliable cycle-to-cycle voters. This could be a major advantage in a close race.
For all the hype surrounding the February 1 caucuses, only a fraction of Iowa’s registered voters participate. There’s a jar out for every candidate and every one who comes in can put a coffee bean in the jar of their favorite candidate.
On the Democratic side, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley polled 3 percent with 2 percent undecided, but 14 percent of those who named a candidate said they might change their mind.
That scenario has worked better for Democrats, as the national party has chosen the victor of the Iowa caucuses in the last three contested nomination races.
Caucuses are very different from primaries-mostly because they are much more public events. Those who support other candidates and who believe a contest between two runaway populists is bad for the country may show up even if they didn’t initially intend to caucus.
The caucuses are party-run affairs, rather than elections run by the state.
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Sanders, meanwhile, has focused his energy on college towns and has pushed hard to bring new participants into the caucus process.
