Iran’s crude oil exports have nearly halved in three years, Iranian banks have been barred from the worldwide financial system and extensive nuclear proliferation, missile and other arms-related sanctions have hampered Iran’s quest for regional hegemony.
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Pundits and press are gathered in the Viennese hotel lobby, adjacent to the Palais Cobourg where talks are taking place.
A single military strike “would only delay an Iranian drive” for “a finite period” so a credible “military option would have to envision a long-term campaign of repeated follow- up strikes as facilities are rebuilt or new targets identified”, Kenneth Katzman, Middle East analyst for the Congressional Research Service, said in an e-mail.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon have criticized the emerging deal with Iran in recent days.
But diplomats say Iran will be reluctant to open up to IAEA investigators until the punitive sanctions are lifted.
Zarif said Wednesday no deadline has been set. Its both highly scientific and deeply sensitive. “The agency just needs the means to do its work”. But given Iran’s history of secret programs, the deal is worthless without tight inspection measures.
If Iran is facing the re-imposition of penalties, and the USA and its partners don’t uphold their commitments to provide economic relief, he said “Iran has the right to go back to its program as it wishes”.
Obama on Tuesday pledged to “walk away from the negotiations if, in fact, it is a bad deal”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the chief Iranian diplomat present at the talks, had left Vienna Sunday for Tehran for consultations and returned on deadline day with Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, and Hossein Fereydoun, brother of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
The powers want Iran to grant more access to inspectors from the global Atomic Energy Agency, and to answer its questions about previous nuclear work that may have had military purposes. Iran’s parliament, the Majlis, has also passed a law banning inspectors from military sites.
The U.S. president stood firm, saying there must be a “strong, rigorous verification mechanism” for keeping a tight watch over Iran’s nuclear sites. “I don’t see them putting their foot on the gas”, says Sadjadpour, “because if they do, that is going to trigger additional sanctions from the United States“.
According to the official IRNA news agency, the men discussed how to speed up resolving outstanding issues, including addressing concerns over Iran’s past nuclear activities.
Another key issue is the sequencing of the deal.
Under the November 2013 preliminary agreement, Iran agreed to take some steps to constrain its nuclear programme in exchange for limited relief from sanctions.
One source said a “creative” solution to a near-simultaneous sequencing had been found.
Obama administration officials insisted that despite Iran’s failure to meet its obligations, negotiations were still on track and that Tehran would face no repercussions.
For Iran leadership, “any deal” suits it fine because it views itself as a regional military superpower on the ascent.
If that date isn’t kept, the mandatory review could stretch to 60 days and provide a bigger window for sceptics in Congress, and in other countries, to find fault in the fine print.
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“We are working very, very hard and we have some very difficult issues but we believe we re making progress and we re going to continue to work because of that”, Kerry told reporters.
