A rise in exports of crude oil from Iran once its sanctions have been lifted depends on the future global demand for oil and should not weaken the price of oil any further said senior officials from the Islamic Republic.
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Thirteen of the 18 respondents who participated in both the November poll and the most recent survey, conducted in December, cut their average 2016 price forecasts for Brent futures, which averaged US$53.79 in 2015.
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Iran has said it will retaliate the Saudi-triggered downfall of oil prices by not reducing its output. “We are likely getting closer to a more balanced market” said Ric Spooner chief market analyst at CMC Markets adding that he expected Brent to average 45 a barrel while warning that there would be high volatility.
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“Oil prices will fluctuate between $35 and $50 per barrel in the coming years and there will be no worries regarding Iran’s oil income”, he said.
OPEC failed to agree on any production targets at its December 4 meeting in Vienna, cementing its decision to protect market share, as the organization braces for the return of Iranian exports to the market after the lifting of Western sanctions.
One method of ensuring the oil sales of the country is buying refineries in countries but that must be approved by the parliament and administration.
The sanctions have halved Iran’s oil exports to around 1.1 million bpd from a pre-2012 level of 2.5 million bpd, and the loss of oil income has hampered investments. Oil began falling in mid-2014 as surging output from OPEC, Russia and USA shale producers outpaced demand. At full production, Iran is the second-largest OPEC oil producer. “Production potential does not mean we will be entering the boosted production into the market or stockpile it. We will be producing as much as the market can absorb”.
Deputy Industry, Mine and Trade Minister Mojtaba Khosrotaj said recently Iran’s oil revenues in the new year are estimated to total $14 billion if the government’s bid to increase exports by 500,000 barrels per day materializes. The market is also fearful of surging oil supplies from Iran next year, once sanctions are lifted.
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The International Energy Agency, which monitors market trends for the world’s richest nations, expects the global glut to persist for most of 2016.
