The embassy stressed preparation in the event of a failure but Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi downplayed the possibility of a disaster, calling it “unlikely”.
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The embassy’s overview of a breach scenario said 500,000 to 1.47 million Iraqis living in areas most exposed to the flood wave along the Tigris River would probably not survive if they were not evacuated. The strength of the warning marked a sharp change in tone for the Baghdad government, which for years has played down the threat of collapse. The Saddam Hussein regime pressed on with it in the face of warnings from geologists that it was being built on weak, water-soluble rock such as gypsum and anhydrite.
The study said the disaster could shut down the entire Iraqi electricity grid, durably damage much of the country’s best farmland and leave the capital flooded for weeks. ISIS, another term for the Islamic State, had seized control of the dam for a very short period of time in August 2014.
The wave of water would sweep as far south as Samarra; killing people, crushing buildings, laying waste to farm land and knocking out power plants.
An Iraqi government spokesman said earlier this month that Italy’s Trevi construction group had landed a $230-million contract for the fix and maintenance of the dam. On Monday a company spokesman confirmed it still had not been signed and gave no expected signature date. “Some models estimate that Mosul could be inundated by as much as 70 feet (21 meters) of water within hours of the breach”.
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“I, like the secretary, think we would do more in Mosul than Ramadi just because of the order of magnitude of the operation in Mosul would indicate to me that we would have more USA support in Mosul than we did in Ramadi”, Dunford said.
