On the Groundhog Day, people gather to see rodents predicting whether spring is expected to arrive early or not. If one of these varmints sees his shadow, that is supposed to mean six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, an early spring is coming.
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Surprisingly, this year’s prediction is a bit rare as a longer winter has been forecast 102 times and early spring only 18 times since 1887. This is significantly worse than chance (p = 0.008), and, if the accuracy figure is correct, suggests the traditional interpretation of Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions should be reversed.
Up in Gobbler’s Knob, Penn., the site of the nation’s most famous Groundhog Day appearance, Punxsutawney Phil concurred with T-boy’s forecast. Punxsutawney Phil’s inner circle revealed their forecast at sunrise.
Now, Phil may lack a science degree or a recognised meteorological qualification, but then, he is a groundhog; a cute, slightly aggressive terrier-sized rodent. In an era when our daily lives were influenced by nature, myths such as this assures that our present is tied to our distant past. The Weather Channel meteorologists predict that most of the continental U.S. will see warmer weather over the next three months, but Southeastern states may feel the chill linger.
According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow on Groundhog Day, Feb. 2, the cold weather will not loosen its grip on North America for six weeks. There are no records for the remaining years.
And in Punxsutawney Phil’s home state of Pennsylvania, it won’t be hard for it to feel like spring after Winter Storm Jonas walloped the region, busting through snowfall records. In Michigan, handlers of Woody the Woodchuck said she predicted six more weeks of winter. The prosecuting attorney in the Butler County of OH went for a death penalty for Phil but a Pennsylvania law firm came to his defense.
And in Canada, two four-legged forecasters split the decision.
In Washington, D.C., Punxsutawney Phil’s counterpart, Potomac Phil also called for an early spring.
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Once upon a time, the Audubon Zoo used a real groundhog to make the annual weather prediction.
