Iranian daily Ghanoon has dubbed Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as the Star of Davos (World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland). With the agreement in force, Iran now has the potential to transform itself from a pariah state to a regional power broker.
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Thus the sanctions regime imposed on Iran by the United States has been substantially weakened.
However, the American trade embargo is still in place, as limited business activities have been allowed, like selling or purchasing of Iranian caviar, pistachios, saffron and carpets and American commercial aircraft and their parts. “In this situation, [he believes], Iran’s policy-makers will not think of advancing towards the manufacture of a nuclear bomb, [because] this would cause trouble for the Iranian regime and the Iranian people, who would refuse to go back to the era of sanctions after tasting freedom from sanctions”.
Contrary to the hawks, Iran is the aggrieved party in the relationship with the United States. There is little reason to expect further loosening of USA sanctions in the near future. This series of proxy battles – in which the two rivals are backing competing factions in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Bahrain – have shaped the Middle East since the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. While the deal was negotiated between Iran and the so-called P5 + 1 nations (referring to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), the core of the negotiations was aimed at ending decades of US-Iranian hostility.
Within Iran, the lifting of sanctions and an end to Tehran’s global isolation were expected to strengthen Rouhani and his moderate allies.
III. U.S. Sanctions Against Iran – What’s Next?
But it does mean that the administration must stop giving the impression it will no longer stand up to malign Iranian behavior in the region because it fears jeopardizing the nuclear accord (most Arab Sunnis believe Washington has entered into an alliance with Tehran). In particular, they slammed Iran’s brief detention of US sailors last week, and expressed dismay that Kerry thanked Tehran after their release. Under the current deal, some $100bn (£70bn) of Iranian assets (equal to 25 per cent of the country’s GDP or total output) could be freed. The negotiations, critics said, falsely equated Iranians publicly prosecuted for breaking USA law with Americans who had been seized on bogus or secret charges.
This activity would continue shrinking Iran’s “breakout time” – the time required to produce enough nuclear material for one weapon-from the two months at which it had been frozen to one month, or one week, or closer.
On Jan. 2, the kingdom executed an outspoken Shi’ite cleric who called for the overthrow of the Saudi royal family.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are locked in an escalating row and on Tuesday Riyadh accused Tehran of having “a record of spreading sedition, unrest and chaos in the region”. Iran’s recent missile test, for example, was a violation of its worldwide obligations.
Saudi Arabia’s leaders are fixated on containing Iranian power throughout the Middle East, whether real or perceived.
First and foremost this vigilance will require setting firm policies regarding the way the West responds to Iranian transgressions – nuclear or otherwise.
Despite concessions that have been made by Iran, there still remains the opportunity for further progress in other areas. Their average age is under 25.
The House of Saud is facing a challenge from the militants of Islamic State, who have carried out a series of suicide bombings in the kingdom over the past year.
But those that take the plunge face serious risks from the remaining sanctions relating to other issues, from geopolitical uncertainty and from red tape and corruption.
The International Atomic Energy Agency ruled on January 16 that Iran had abided by an agreement previous year with six world powers to curtail its nuclear programme, triggering the end of sanctions.
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The IAEA’s confirmation that Iran had fulfilled its commitments under the nuclear deal also automatically ended most United Nations sanctions on the country. It is one sign of hope in a region plagued by bloodshed and uncertainty.
