That’s what Donald Trump told supporters in Jackson last week at the Mississippi Coliseum, but which polls is he leading, and if so, how accurate are they? “Virginia is probably more important in terms of the nature of the electorate there”. Until recently, the RCP average had Clinton up about 9 points in Pennsylvania.
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“So whereas early August was the very height of the post-convention bounce for Clinton and a very bad week for Trump, this week we’ve seen that convention bounce go away and a week that has been about a wash for Trump”, he said.
FiveThirtyEight, weighing four polls (two national and two state) in MS, estimates that Trump has around a 91 percent chance of winning the state.
The poll, which found Trump more popular than bedbugs but less popular than middle seats on airplanes, also described Americans as “largely ambivalent” toward two of Trump’s most prominent conservative supporters, with 44 percent of voters saying they have no opinion either way about Ann Coulter, and 38 percent saying they have no opinion about Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity.
Fourteen percent did not have an opinion of Ryan in the poll of voters conducted August 25-28.
In other results, Clinton led a four candidate field (including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party pick Jill Stein), with 37 percent for Clinton, 32 percent for Trump, 11 for Johnson and 7 for Stein, among registered voters. But he trails 50% to 33% among white women, and Clinton leads 67% to 12% among black, Hispanic and Asian voters. And the dynamics of the four-way race don’t favor him at the moment: Third-party voters lean narrowly towards Hillary when forced to choose, and Trump is attempting this comeback while shouldering an unfavorable rating that’s somehow even more toxic than Clinton’s.
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To be sure, voters in the state are less than enamored with the Republican as well. Ten percent said they support neither candidate. Likely voters are defined as those who are certain to vote-in this poll, that number is 650. That year, President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney, 53% to 46%. In this year’s Republican primary, MS posted record numbers in terms of turnout with 416,252 Republicans voting in the primary election, secretary of state data show. “And that might be the impetus for increasing voter turnout for Republicans”. The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for reaction. That 3-point margin is a far cry from Marquette’s early August survey where Clinton led Trump by 15 percentage points. Campaign offices are typically concentrated in battleground states.
