So, snow would change over to freezing rain and rain for much of the eastern half of the area limiting accumulations. If you hate snow, then you want the storm to track through North Carolina and then go off the coast through Hampton Roads. Combine those tides with large waves and strong winds kicked up by the storm, and coastal flooding is likely for east facing coastlines.
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Areas from near Washington, D.C., to around New York City are within the swath most likely to receive the heaviest snow from the storm.
As the storm deepens, it will slow down, and that’s going to make this a protracted event. See graphic below for suggested GFS model totals. My concern since last week is that where this storm strikes the West Coast today would dictate where it effectively leaves the East Coast. Expect this to be a very disruptive storm up and down I-95 and west to the Blue Ridge mountains. Snow should be falling throughout all of Southern New England including the cape as snow begins to move into the areas around Manchester New Hampshire, Portland Maine, Rutland Vermont and Albany and Syracuse New York. Along the coast, destructive waves roiled up by 50- to 60-mph winds will cause tremendous beach erosion.
So, at this point I would not cancel plans based on this forecast, but if you live in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast or of you have travel plans to this region, I would definitely stay up to date with the latest forecasts for Friday and Saturday.
There are a few things that would put the limits on snow totals. Unlike other systems that we have seen so far this season, this one will be a slower mover. The jet stream may be a little too progressive to allow the storm in the East to linger for too long.
The forecast models are in unusually close agreement for a storm that is more than four days in the future.
“The potential snowfall distribution (of this weekend storm) has similarities to several major East Coast storms in recent past, including the 5-6 February 2010 snowstorm, the January…” But it seems that the storm will deepen fast enough to compensate for this issue by generating a strengthening wind off the Atlantic to drive a lot of water back inland over the remaining low level cold air. It would be safe to say 1 to 2 feet of snow would be where much of the region ends up if this model verifies.
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First, here is the easy part of the weather: It will be breezy and chilly tonight with lows of 8-14.
