Ms Merkel’s refugee policies were a prominent issue in the campaign for the election, which came a year to the day after she chose to let in migrants who were waiting in Hungary to travel to Germany – setting off the peak of last year’s influx.
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While Alavan’s Newton said in his note, “let’s see what happens in Berlin a fortnight from now (in the state election) before writing Merkel off”, another analyst said the Berlin election could force the CDU into an uncomfortable position with the SPD – a party that, despite partnering the CDU/CSU in power, has criticized her migrant policy.
Sunday’s result could make it more hard for Mrs Merkel to bury a festering dispute with the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian arm of her conservative bloc, which has long criticised her decision to open the borders and advocated an annual cap on migrants.
Merkel’s bloc of Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, had never been overtaken on the right in any state or national election in the history of modern Germany, and the result prompted the chancellor’s critics from her own camp and across the spectrum to renew speculation about her future.
“I consider the fundamental decisions as right, but there is much to be done to win back trust and the topic of integration will play a huge role, as well as the repatriation of those who don’t gain residency rights”.
With a federal election just a year away, Merkel’s ratings have fallen to a five-year low since opening German borders to about a million migrants last year and then championing a disputed EU-Turkey deal to solve the crisis.
The political beating that the CDU took this weekend was not the first indication of public opinion souring towards Merkel’s party with local elections earlier this year also showing a rise in support for the AfD.
He added that since a year ago, when Merkel gave her famous promise that Germany would cope with the migrant inflow – which stood at one million in 2015 – the country faced numerous problems caused by the chancellor’s welcoming stance toward refugees.
But New Year’s Eve robberies and sexual assaults in Germany blamed largely on foreigners, as well as two attacks in July carried out by asylum-seekers and claimed by the Isil group, have fed tensions.
“This was more than a small state election, it was a vote on Merkel”, said news site Spiegel Online, pointing at the “protest storm” in “Merkel’s living room”. As it stands, the AfD has no realistic chance of going into government.
Merkels Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has so far placed third, gaining 19 percent of the votes, compared to 23 in the previous elections in 2011.
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“Apparently many voters don’t realise, or tacitly accept, that the AfD. has failed to clearly distance itself from the far-right”, he said.
