The Monsoon Mission Experimental forecast, based on the ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled dynamical model, suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2016 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 112 per cent ± 5 per cent of long period model average (LPMA). However, rain in July is likely to be 107 per cent of Long Period Average and 104 per cent of Long Period Average during August with a model error of plus minus nine per cent.
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The Met department said that there is 96 percent probability that monsoon will be normal and in excess. Anything less than 90 per cent of the LPA is termed as a “deficient” monsoon and 90-96 per cent of the LPA is rated as “below normal”.
Monsoon has set in over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and conditions were favourable for its advance over Kerala in the next four to five days, Laxman Singh Rathore, director general, IMD told reporters here.
Indian Meteorological Department’s confirmation about above normal rainfall, mostly from 104 per cent to 110 per cent, has come as a huge relief for drought stricken Maharashtra.
Central India and southern peninsula will receive 113 per cent of LPA while the northeastern region is expected to get 94 per cent of rainfall which is “below normal”. It should, says IMD, pick up pace from July and reach a peak by September. In April, IMD projected above-normal rains during the critical south-west monsoon as El Nino, the giant weather phenomenon that drove global temperatures to new highs, waned.
Kerala is receiving a good patchy pre-monsoon rainfall.
An extended range weather forecast, as per the National Agromet Advisory Service Bulletin, said the main rainfall belt will sit over extreme South India and parts of North-East India from June 3 to 9.
Between 1901 and 2015, there were 24 La Nina years.
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The prediction for above normal downpour for the first time since 2013 is seen boosting prospects of farm output and easing an acute drinking water shortage caused by two years of below-average rain.
