Earlier this week the government removed all eight ethnic groups who wanted to sign the agreement from the list of “illegal association”, a decisive step to bring them within the fold of official politics.
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Todays signing ceremony was witnessed only by a few global observers, including China, India, Japan, Thailand, the European Union, and the United Nations.
“Although a few important groups have not yet made a decision to take this step, today’s signing reflects a recognition by leaders from the government, as well as from the ethnic armed organizations, of the people of Myanmar’s genuine aspiration to end long years of conflict and live together in peace”, Haq said. A few of the non-participating groups are vital for the Southeast Asian nation, which is carefully moving from military dictatorship to democracy. This violence has resulted in killing of tens of thousands, displacement of hundreds of thousands and more.
Groups like the Kachin Independence Army and the Palaung State Liberation Army, the predecessor to the TNLA, abandoned the Karen National Union and the Karen National Liberation Army for ceasefire deals with SLORC. In fact, this was a precondition for them to be able to sign the NCA, which does not override those pre-existing bilateral ceasefire deals.
The groups that abstained did so because of the government’s refusal to acknowledge three other ethnic armed groups – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – who are now engaged in heavy fighting against Myanmar’s Armed Forces, officially known as the Tatmadaw, in northern Shan State.
Even though the SSA-S will sign the agreement, which it hopes will pave the way for political dialogue to advance ethnic minority rights, he said expectations are low.
The conflict turned out to be a red line for the government, said Aung Naing Oo, director of the peace dialogue program at the Myanmar Peace Center, the government’s secretariat for its peace efforts.
The deal will start the “political dialogue stage”, said Ryan Aherin from risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft.
Of the seven non-signatories, one is the largest armed group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which has an estimated 25,000 members operating on the border with China.
For after months of protracted talks and amid increasingly angry recriminations, only eight of about 20 ethnic armed groups are expected to sign a “national ceasefire” meant to close the curtain on the world’s longest-running insurgency campaign.
Sein – a reformist former general installed by the junta in 2011 – has repeatedly promised a nationwide cease-fire agreement before a general election on November. 8.
In the short term, the situation on the ground in ethnic areas is unlikely to change much.
The proposed NCA was seen as a major development in Myanmar ahead of the November 8 general elections in the country that is said to be on a transition towards democracy.
But with fighting still raging in parts of the country, election officials this week said polls cannot be carried out in areas battered by conflict or outside government control.
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“We do not trust Naypyidaw’s [government’s] peace process”.
