Due to magma accumulation of a volcano, an eruption is lurking in Japan reminiscent of the Sakurajima eruption in 1914 that caused natural disaster, avalanches and tsunamis that left 58 people dead, injuring thousands and leaving many residents homeless.
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Although the Sakurajima volcano remained constantly active over the last several decades, the small regular volcanic eruptions were not able to get rid of all the magma and the Aira caldera – deep crater that was formed from a collapsed magma chamber.
Dr Hicke hopes the groundbreaking study will help improve eruption forecasting around the world.
Scientists fear that the growing magma reserve may trigger another devastating eruption similar to what occurred in 1914.
A Japanese volcano is due for a major eruption in the next 25 years threatening a nearby city of hundreds of thousands of people, scientists say. Sakurajima regularly spews ash and there are many small explosions there each year, with the latest eruption being in February. A report by experts from the U.K.’s Bristol University and the Sakurajima Volcano Research Center warned on Tuesday that the volcano is overdue an eruption, which they predict to take place around 25 years from now.
By combining recent GPS deformation measurements with other geophysical data and advanced 3D computer models, Dr Hickey and his co-authors were able to reconstruct the magma plumbing system beneath the caldera.
“What we have discovered is not just how the magma flows into the reservoir, but just how great the reservoir is becoming”.
Co-author Dr Joachim Gottsmann, from the University of Bristol added: “A thorough understanding of the rate and volume of magma supply and accumulation, and their thermomechanical controls, is essential for continued monitoring and eruption forecasting at Sakurajima volcano, and volcanoes worldwide”.
This has lead them to believe that a major eruption is likely in the next 30 years.
“The 1914 eruption measured about 1.5 kilometres cubed in volume – a massive event”, says Hickey. In it, using local topographic and seismic data, along with magma levels below the caldera, the authors conclude that Sakurajima’s major eruptions would be placed roughly 130 years apart.
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Their research showed that 14 million cubic metres of magma is accumulating each year, enough to fill London’s Wembley Stadium 3.5 times over. “(The) Kagoshima city office has prepared new evacuation plans from Sakurajima, after (the) experiences of evacuation (during the) crisis in August 2015”.
