And if the last Democratic debate, just a week ago, was a referendum on which candidate was the true progressive, this one could turn into a referendum on President Obama.
Advertisement
Trump: Far from being humbled by winning silver in Iowa, Trump blew away the competition in New Hampshire by winning nearly a third of the vote. But the state’s exit polls, which delve into the demographics and opinions of its voters, offer some hints about how the race could play out going forward.
In order to win the Democratic nomination for president, either Clinton or Sanders has to rack up 2,382 delegates to the July Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Penn. Donald J. Trump, once risible, is officially viable as a candidate for the Republican nomination.
Still, a sense of disaffection doesn’t necessarily correlate with a vote for an outsider.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks as his wife Melania Trump and daughter Ivanka Trump look on after Primary day at his election night watch party at the Executive Court Banquet facility. Marco Rubio of Florida.
And Mr Bush, his once forlorn campaign re-energised after outpolling Mr Rubio in New Hampshire, made it clear he will aggressively target the two establishment-aligned rivals he needs to defeat to consolidate the party’s support.
With that bit of political history out of the way, it can be said without qualification that Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary proved an quake has hit the Republican and Democratic parties.
The freedom of superdelegates to freely support whichever candidate they choose (rather than being apportioned to candidates based on votes, like regular delegates) is directly related to the issue of electability.
Turnout was down 10 percent for Democrats from 2008, while Republicans saw about a 20 percent increase in voters over 2008.
Turnout was enormous on the Republican side again, but this time it did not appear to hurt Trump as it did in Iowa. But as the Huffington Post’s Samantha Lachman and others point out – impressive New Hampshire results aside, this is still a very long shot. The victor of the Iowa Republican caucuses, Ted Cruz, came in third place in the Granite State with 12 percent of the vote. In Iowa, the discrepancy with late deciders led to plenty of speculation that he’d damaged himself by skipping out on a debate; this time, there was no such excuse.
“You guys got room for one more?” He also won almost three-quarters of undeclared or independent voters.
For all its importance in forming the reality of a presidential race, the New Hampshire primary has long ceased being a rock-solid indicator of destiny.
But was there a difference in how the candidates fared in the more rural parts of New Hampshire?
Advertisement
But Mr Sanders, who has proposed an emphatically liberal agenda to raise taxes and impose regulations on Wall Street, drew support from a wide cross-section of voters, even edging Mrs Clinton out among women, boosted by his appeal among the young. Jeb Bush’s backers are painting John Kasich as weak on defense. By contrast, although Trump won a resounding victory, just half of GOP primary voters say they’d be satisfied to have him as their nominee. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Rubio all desperately need a strong showing there to survive.
