At the least, Florida could see an increase in heavy rainfall by the end of the weekend.
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The latest forecast track calls for the storm to reach south Florida Monday morning (Aug. 31) as a hurricane. Maximum sustained winds remained at 45 miles per hour (75 kph), and the storm was not forecast to gain strength over the next two days. It was centered about 540 miles east of Antigua and moving west at a 20 mph clip.
More immediately, Erika may drop 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) of rain across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Friday.
Forecasters say Erika could become a hurricane by Saturday. Those options range from a track into or near South Florida and the Bahamas, into the southern Gulf of Mexico, or near the southeastern US coastline.
Tropical storm warnings are up for Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico ahead of a weakened Danny’s anticipated arrival.
Government leaders ordered schools, airports and even casinos to close and they prepared shelters as Tropical Storm Erika approached the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday.
The warning has now been extended to Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
Last week the season’s first hurricane, Danny, while still far out at sea reached Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, with winds of between 111 and 129 miles per hour (178-208 kph), before rapidly dissipating as it reached the Caribbean islands.
A “Hurricane Hunter” reconnaissance plane headed out Tuesday to investigate Tropical Storm Erika, a disorganized system on a path yet to be pinned down.
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The bottom line is that we need to watch Erika closely over the coming days as the long range forecast is made with little confidence and the center line of the cone will likely change before early next week.
