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Next Fed rate hike likely in Q1

The decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a sign the US economy is back on track after the financial crisis and ready to wean itself off the financial life support of record low rates. This has clouded the outlook for interest rates next year, said one US bond trader.

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That is in line with the consensus view of economists that the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate – the rate that banks charge on overnight loans – will end next year at around 1 per cent.

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The political-kings must choose more urgent action to correct rising inequality, an unintended effect of nine years of emergency measures by the Fed, and coronation time is less than a year away. As a result, probability of a dovish rate hike trail ahead cheered equity investors nearly across the globe.

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If you’re trying to manage a large sum of credit card debt, one option is to rollover your debt into one of the many zero or low interest rate cards on offer right now. Immediately after the rate hike, Wells Fargo raised its prime lending rate from 3.25% to 3.50%, without changing its deposit rate.

And we would do well to remember that the fairly recent phenomenon of renewed growth in earnings in inflation-adjusted terms followed a painful period of many years of declining real pay for United Kingdom households.

But the question that now haunts financial players is “how far, how fast” rates will rise, said economist Edwin Truman at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Criticism of Ms. Yellen and the Fed come from those who feel that the rise could have come sooner, and they point to the general boost to the economy of the Fed’s positive assessment of its underlying health signaled by the rate hike. It will be hard for companies to raise rates at earlier rates.

The low interest rate environment has not been good for banks such as Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)(NYSE:TD).

While yesterday’s rate hike caused emerging markets to react positively, as a lot of them had already priced in a rate hike in the U.S., concerns of further increases on interest rates on capital flows remained.

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Investors turned cautious on Friday about what a stronger dollar and weak commodity prices could mean for the world economy, as a clutch of central banks moved to cushion the impact of the first USA rate rise in almost a decade. European equities posted solid gains following the US Fed’s rate hike decision, with Germany’s benchmark DAX index at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange soaring 2.57 percent. “And because we’re now paying interest for them to keep the money there, much of that money has not filtered out into the economy”. Comparing market expectations with the members’ expectations, we can look at Fed funds futures. Even the U.S. Treasury curve does not move in lockstep with the U.S. short rate-the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell 70 basis points (0.70%) in yield in the first 12 months of the 2004-2006 cycle. Such increases could be caused by surprises in the Federal Reserve’s normalization of monetary policy – expected to be carried out over the next several years – or other shocks.

USA economy creates 211000 jobs in November making Fed rate hike likely