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No One Saw October’s Jobs Report Coming
The burst of hiring, the most in 10 months, filled jobs across a range of industries.
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“The payroll report was very strong, on top of further evidence (auto sales, services activity, etc) that domestic activity will remain solid and sidestep global weakness”, said Michael Gapen, managing director, head of U.S. Economics Research at Barclays, in an email.
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate held steady last month at 62.4 percent, the lowest it’s been since the late 1970’s.
And the job creation and wage gains averaged out over the past three months suggest steadiness, rather than an acceleration, economists said.
The data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed an increase of 271,000 in non-farm payrolls, the largest increase of the year. By late morning, stocks had fallen modestly. “The dollar is approaching 3 month highs and USA treasury yields are the highest since July”. The average hourly wage was reported as rising just 1 cent last month. That is comfortably above inflation, which was been flat in the past year.
“It’s a shocking number”, said Mr John Canally, chief economic strategist at LPL Financial Corp in Boston.
Both the unemployment rate (5.0 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (7.9 million) were essentially unchanged in October. Company sales have grown 6 percent this year from 2014. Markets now seemed more prepared for a Fed move. “Fuel prices have a big impact”. Federal, state and local governments added 3,000.
The unemployment rate for this group ticked up from 4.2 percent in September.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that a rise in rates in December was a “live possibility” if justified by upcoming economic data.
“If the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) were meeting today they would be tightening”, said Jim O’Sullivan, economist at High Frequency Economics, referring to the Fed’s rate-setting committee. “The healthy strong employment results for the past two years created an uptick in household formation, which has driven increased demand for home purchases and rentals”. That figure has fallen in recent years as the aging population and increasing retirements by baby boomers have slowed the growth of the US workforce.
Along with altering the landscape for policymakers in Washington, D.C., and traders on Wall Street, the strength in the labor market, if it persists, is expected to shift the political debate as the 2016 presidential campaign heats up.
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Silver for December delivery fell 29.2 cents, or 1.95 percent, to close at 14.691 dollars per ounce. The slowdown occurred mostly because businesses cut back on their stockpiles and exports weakened. Mining and forestry jobs pay more than 20% better than average, but employment in these sectors continues to decline as resource prices slide.