In the study published on Monday in journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers argue that the storms that previously would have struck once every 500 years are now more likely to occur once every few decades. Only a month after the three-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, scientists fear that storms like the one that happened in 2012 will occur sooner than expected.
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The next phase of the research, led by Andra Reed, a doctoral candidate at Penn State, will use the data gathered to predict sea levels and hurricane activity and when major storms like Superstorm Sandy might strike.
Sept 30 US energy companies said on Wednesday they were preparing for the possibility that Hurricane Joaquin could hit the New York City area early next week, potentially following the destructive course of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
A one foot rise along the mid-Atlantic coast over the past century caused havoc, he said in reference to Hurricane Sandy. In addition, Adam Sobel from the Columbia University said there are certainly other areas apart from New York, coastal or not, who may be experiencing the worse effects of rising sea levels in the nearest future.
Between 850 CE and 1800, there was a slight, natural, and gradual rise in sea levels.
After evaluating the data, researchers were finally able to develop a storm surge model.
The research team used proxy sea-level records, climate models, and sea-rising simulations that told the tale of storms and surges in prehistoric eras across the North Atlantic.
The height that a storm surge can reach is dependent on the underlying sea level, the tide, and scale of the tropical cyclone. First off, New York needs to start investing in storm-proof infrastructure, whether that means higher seawalls, sturdier building foundations or new outflows for waterlogged streets.
Also, the rise on water levels are not the only outcome of human-caused climate change. According to the study, these results highlight the ever-growing risk faced by coastal communities across the US on account of rising sea levels combined with increasingly intense storm surges.
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“We found that the biggest tropical cyclones tend to be larger, with a larger radius and maximum winds of these storms in the later anthropogenic time period”, Reed said. In addition, climate change is leading to larger and more intense tropical storms. Irene’s storm surge caused heavy flooding across Long Island, contributing to the estimated $296 million in damages the storm caused in New York. They didn’t mince words in their analysis, noting the cause of the increased risk was far from random: “Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies”.
