Here’s the timing of the storm: We could see a flurry or two to the south late Friday afternoon, but for most part it is around 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. when we will the snow start moving into the area.
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The map contours that depict the projected path of the snow through North Jersey are “really close together”, Engle said.
“Heavy and blowing snow will cause unsafe conditions and will be a threat to life and property”, it warns.
Forecasters are predicting accumulations could range from 6 to 18 inches, with the greatest amounts mainly inland from the coast.
A coastal flood warning was issued for areas along the Jersey Shore, as several unusually high tides driven by winds of up to 60 miles per hour pound the coast from Cape May to Sandy Hook.
It was too soon midday Wednesday – with the storm out in the mountain west- to determine with certainty what the weekend storm will bring but the National Weather Service was confident the storm will occur but less confident in the details. SUNDAY: Snow will continue into early Sunday morning, but should taper off rather quickly, leaving us with a dry, windy and cold day with some drifting snow possible.
The other part of this storm that has to be mentioned is the coastal flooding. The winds may down power lines and tree limbs. The storm is also expected to significantly impact travel in the region. In Delaware, the Blizzard Warning is posted for the following counties – New Castle; Kent. A Blizzard Warning means to expect wind and gusts over 35 mph, snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less and lasting three hours or longer. Precipitation intensity and winds will begin to subside northwest to southeast beginning around midnight on Saturday. Gusty winds could also produce snow drifts.
So what remains to be resolved, and what could go wrong? Someone will receive very little snowfall relative to another location a few miles south. That tight gradient could be realized over southern New York, northern New Jersey or as far south as the Route 78 corridor including New York City.
Morris County is in for its first snow storm of the season, but likely won’t get the worst of it in New Jersey, according to the most recent forecast models. For now, all residents should prepare for the most significant snowfall of the last two winters and coastal residents should prepare for a top 10 flooding event in New Jersey history.
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We are entering the time period where the short-term, rapid updating “mesoscale” models come into their wheelhouse.
