The export ban was lifted in the $1.15 trillion spending bill that President Obama signed Friday.
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Lawmakers representing oil-producing states, such as North Dakota and Alaska, have been working to convince their colleagues to back oil exports and allay fears they will be blamed if gasoline prices were to rise. They already open short positions in the calculation of the profit with the price of oil at $15 a barrel. The stock has a 1-month performance of -12.29 percent and is -29.37 percent year-to-date as of the recent close.
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Jacob Dweck, an attorney with law firm Sutherland, which represents oil producers, said some producers and shippers “are interested in flying the flag of exports….” But University of Houston energy economics professor Ed Hirs had a ho-hum reaction to the news.
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“From a global standpoint, our main concern is that US production is not decreasing”, Phillip Futures said. In 2016, it is expected to pump an additional half million barrels of oil per day into the markets.
Supplies fell by 5.88 million barrels last week, the largest loss since June, government data showed Wednesday. “While the crude rebalancing should start next year, the pace of inventory drawdown will depend on OPEC output”, said analysts at Energy Aspects in a report.
Also, the likely joining of another player Iran in the global oil production arena – if worldwide sanctions are lifted – will likely keep the market flooded with oil, per IEA. “No country or refiner out there is going to take US oil at a premium price against discounted prices from OPEC”.
Since 2010, USA petroleum imports have fallen from a peak of nearly 14 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 9 million bpd, government data shows. Tuesday was the first time US crude settled above Brent since August 2010. The price of crude plummeted from $144 per barrel in July 2008 to $31 today, knocking down prices at US pumps from more than $4 per gallon to under $2. As a result, the benefits for accessing foreign markets are now minimal for USA producers.
“Rare arbitrage opportunities to export crude to other places besides Canada will become more common”, Barclays said following the lifting of the export ban, although it added that the immediate impact would be small. As a outcome, United States shale was severely damaged, with both the unsustainably low oil prices, and the inability to compete in the global markets. The American Petroleum Institute has also projected an increase in production up until 2035.
From the U.S. perspective, a drilling productivity report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration found that, of the seven inland shale basins that accounted for domestic oil production growth, few are expected to. “Ending the ban made eminent sense”.
Some of that came early as the Bureau of Economic Analysis inadvertently released figures on US personal consumption. Another one, Magnum Hunter Resources, filed for bankruptcy protection in December, seeking to restructure more than $1 billion in debt.
“There was a full-on push by these think tanks to put out research supporting the repeal of the export ban”, said Kevin Connor, the group’s director.
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McGillian said he attributed the draw down in stockpiles to end of year tax and accounting measures.
