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Oil higher as traders look past China to potential supply fall

Oil prices retreated Wednesday as US crude output increased more than expected.

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USA crude oil inventories rose 8 million barrels last week, the government-run Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.

Oil prices were little changed in quiet technical trade on Tuesday as declining USA production and a “rebalancing” momentum in the market offset expectations of Iranian barrels adding to the already persistent supply glut.

Wednesday’s weekly data showed the fourth consecutive weekly build in US inventories and the second second consecutive gain of more than 7.5 million barrels.

At the special meeting, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and nonmembers such as Russian Federation and Mexico discussed the fall in oil prices, which have tumbled by more 50% since last summer.

My biggest worry now is not the non-OPEC members but the Gulf-producing countries, which may not show any respect for a quota system or any kind of limits, he said.

USA benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery dropped 34 cents to $45.55 a barrel compared with Monday’s close.

“I believe the general consensus is nothing will be accomplished insofar as a plan to cut production but I think there is just a level of cautiousness in case of a surprise”, said Energy Management Institute analyst Dominick Chirichella. Is the price decline simply a reaction to elevated supply due to the growth of fracking or has worldwide oil demand fallen as a result slowing global growth?

Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive at trading house Gunvor, said he did not expect the oil price to rise beyond normal volatility levels at least until mid-2016. The Department of Energy is expected to report supplies rose by 3.75 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of experts.

The World Bank today lowered its 2015 forecast for crude oil prices from Dollars 57 per barrel in its July report to USD 52 per barrel, a development that could bring in additional savings to the Indian treasury.

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Iran will boost its crude oil production within one week once worldwide sanctions are lifted and is determined to regain its lost market share, senior Iranian oil officials reiterated on October 19.

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