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Oil Prices Low Not Likely to Go Lower
Crude prices fell more than 3 percent on Wednesday, with Brent sliding towards 11-year lows, after an unusual build in US stockpiles and signs Saudi Arabia will keep adding to the global oil glut. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that WTI crude oil prices could average $51 per barrel in 2016.
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The U.S. also imported more oil last week – 7.9 million barrels a day, up from 7.3 million barrels the week earlier.
Oil resumed its decline toward $37/bbl before weekly US crude inventory and production data.
Oil prices are on course to fall by more than a third this year as big suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation have continued pumping crude in a bid to defend their market share. Mehdi Assali, the director of affairs Organization of Petroleum Exporting Country affairs at the Iranian Oil Ministry, said that, with production costs of around $10 per barrel, Iran stands in a unique position.
U. S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January delivery were trading at $37.18 per barrel, that’s 69 cents or 1.82 percent down compared to their last settlement.
In late morning deals on Wednesday in London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in February was down 89 cents at 36.90 per barrel. Oil futures took back much of the ground lost in Monday’s rout when both Nymex and Brent fell more than 3% after weak data out of China and Japan stoked concerns about demand.
Oil prices renewed their slide Wednesday ahead of data expected to show an increase in US crude stockpiles.
The comments from Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi intensified the already bearish sentiment created by slowing global energy demand and record-high inventories.
The overproduction-induced surplus has been a persistent irritant in the oil market for over a year.
“For some time, any company, any producing country is able to sustain such low prices”, Dvorkovich said. Fuel subsidy cuts in oil kingpin Saudi Arabia aimed at helping it survive the price rout could also slow the country’s own demand growth next year.
Analysts warned that though low traded volumes into the new year made flat prices susceptible to sharp movements, long-term price supports are unlikely in the immediate future. That is above the 9.13 million level at this time a year ago, but below the peak of 9.6 million barrels per day.
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On Monday, leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia announced plans for spending cuts and non-oil revenue raising methods to manage a record state budget deficit while state-owned oil firm Saudi Aramco pumps away.