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OPEC Crude Production Reaches High of Three Years

Non-OPEC supply will fall by 380,000 barrels a day next year to 57.14 million, with an expected contraction in the US accounting for roughly half the drop, the organization said.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil prices to remain low through 2016, but forecasts a rebound to begin in 2017 as the current oil glut recedes and demand rises.

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OPEC production rose to 31.73 million barrels a day in November, according to the IEA, more than 400,000 barrels a day above the IEA’s estimate of 31.3 million barrels for the 2016 “call” on OPEC production.

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In the past OPEC has responded to price falls by curbing production. Crude oil declined weighed on the global commodities markets pulling down metals as well as most other sectors.

“Lower prices are clearly taking a toll on non-OPEC supply with annual growth shrinking below 0.3 million barrels a day in November from 2.2 million barrels a day at the start of the year”, the IEA said. With U.S. output starting to fade, OPEC left policies more or less in place during last week’s regular meeting in Vienna.

OPEC’s production, excluding output from Iraq, fell slightly for the month. That is the highest output in over three years and 1.7 million barrels a day over its former production ceiling.

US crude futures were at $37.40 per barrel at 0106 GMT, up 24 cents from their last settlement, but still not far off this week’s seven-year lows below $37 per barrel.

The low oil prices on Friday strongly weighed down on USA share prices.

Oil prices crept higher Wednesday but still struggled near multi-year lows as analysts warned the weakness will continue past next year. Saudi Arabian production fell by 0.25 MMbpd to 10.1 MMbpd in November 2015. “So if we were pessimistic before twelve months you should be able to see that supply will not meet the world’s demand”.

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As a result of the report’s changes to 2016 and 2015 non-OPEC supply forecasts, demand for OPEC crude next year is expected to average 30.84 million bpd – just 20,000 bpd more than OPEC expected previously.

Oil finds support from US inventories weaker dollar