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Philly Fed index turns higher in August despite weak details

Manufacturing activity in the USA mid-Atlantic region rebounded in August, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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The Philadelphia Fed said its current business activity index rose to 2.0 in August from -2.9 in July.

The Philly Fed index has turned positive only three times this year.

Thursday’s report follows the New York Fed’s survey earlier this week, which showed activity in that state tipped back into contraction as producers signaled layoffs in the months ahead.

Since being slammed in 2015 by softer global demand, the stronger dollar, and weak commodity prices, the manufacturing sector has struggled to meaningfully recover.

The indicators of employment and new orders showed continued weakness in Philly.

The current new orders index dropped significantly from a reading of 11.8 in July to -7.2 in August. Their median forecast for price increases was 1%, and 2.5% for inflation over the next ten years.

The percentage of firms reporting an increase in new orders (27%) was less than a point lower than last month. The current shipment index rose slightly from 6.3 to 8.4. The employment index fell 18 points to negative 20.

The indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times fell into negative territory, recording values of -15.0 and -3.8, respectively. It was also the eighth straight month of negative readings, which is also a streak that hasn’t been seen since the economy was coming out of the last recession. So while Jobless Claims nationally are painting a positive picture of the employment situation, manufacturing employment within the Philadelphia Fed’s district is not almost as rosy.

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However, the outlook is brighter: A gauge for future general activity rose 12 points to 45.8, according to the Philly Fed.

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