“These plans set a determined course, clearly recognizing that successful climate action achieves not only low emissions but a host of other economic and social benefits for governments, citizens and business”, Ms. Figueres stressed.
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“The Paris agreement has not yet been sealed, but is already raising our sights about what’s possible”, according to a statement from World Resources Institute. However, other independent analyses have, based on a range of assumptions, methodologies and data sources, attempted to estimate the impact of the INDCs on temperature leading to a range of average estimates below, at or above 3 degrees C. Importantly all deliver more or less similar emission levels in 2025 and 2030 and all confirm that the INDCs, if fully implemented, are an important advance on previous scenarios.
The pledges represent the foundation for the global climate agreement expected to be finalized in Paris in December during the latest United Nations climate negotiations.
Among other findings, it said the INDCs could “bring global average emissions per capita down by as much as 8 percent in 2025 and 9 percent by 2030” from 1990 levels because a rising world population would outstrip growth of emissions. Through the Lima Accord reached at the climate summit last December in Peru, the 195 member nations of the U.N. all agreed to put forth their own plans (“Intended Nationally Determined Contributions”) on how they will reduce greenhouse gas emissions within their borders.
A group of European researchers, Climate Action Tracker, has said the INDCs imply a temperature rise of 2.7 degrees by 2100.
At the same time, “much greater emissions reduction efforts… will be required” to meet that target, it added.
– All industrialized country INDCs and many developing country INDCs are unconditional.
The global climate already has warmed 0.85 degrees Celsius as compared to pre-industrial times, scientists say.
Scientists say warming must be kept below 2 degrees by the end of the century to stave off the worst effects of climate change such as floods, droughts and rising sea levels.
Annual global emissions must be reduced to below 42 gigatonnes to avoid warming of more than 2°C, the Grantham/ESRC report finds, assuming that negative emissions can be achieved later this century through technologies such as carbon capture and storage. The new United Nations report on the INDCs states that while emissions will still rise, their rate of growth will be slower thanks to the current pledges.
But even if these 10- to 15-year plans are fulfilled, humanity will have used up three-quarters of its carbon “budget” by 2030 and must slash greenhouse gas outputs even more to avoid devastating climate impacts, the UN’s Climate Change Secretariat warned.
“We insist that the Paris Agreement sets up a mechanism to get countries to further drive down emissions, without delay, ” said Martin Kaiser, head of global climate politics at Greenpeace. “Governments must do more in Paris, but the work does not end there”.
Assessing the report, Deputy Director General of Center for Science and Environment (CSE), Chandra Bhushan said,”the impact of aggregate INDCs is insufficient to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius”.
The national strategies would restrict a rise in world emissions to the equivalent of 56.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2030 – four billion less than expected without the extra action – from 49.0 billion in 2010, it said.
The UN analyzed plans received by October 1 from nations accounting for 86 percent of greenhouse gases. Six years ago during the Copenhagen conference, the United Nations failed to agree on a strong deal regarding climate change. Figueres said she’s confident there won’t be a repeat of that.
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“Governments from all corners of the Earth have signalled through their INDCs that they are determined to play their part according to their national circumstances and capabilities”, Figueres said.
