Nyquist trainer Doug O’Neill walks at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Wednesday, May 18, 2016.
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Two weeks after deftly guiding I’ll Have Another to a comfortable victory in the 2012 Kentucky Derby from the No. 19 post position, Mario Gutierrez again demonstrated uncommon cool under intense pressure in the Preakness Stakes. Third to Nyquist over a wet track in the Florida Derby and I see that scenario happening here.
Todd Pletcher, is making his first Preakness appearance since 2011 with Stradivari, a lightly raced horse who might be peaking after an impressive win in his last start at Keeneland. The truth remains that Nyquist and Exaggerator, the 1-2 Derby finishers, tower over this Preakness field and, if anything, probably both will benefit from the changes in circumstance.
In the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, the feisty gray colt Lani frequently whinnied loudly upon exiting his stall and occasionally refused to budge in workouts.
ABIDING STAR (Edward Allard, J.D. Acosta): Knows how to win. shooting for sixth straight, but has yet to face this type of competition.
Swipe, a promising Derby prospect as a 2-year-old, has finished second to Nyquist four times, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
As none of the proverbial second tier horses here (Destin, Mor Spirt, Outwork, et al) have even bothered to enter the 2016 Preakness Stakes.
Just one year after American Pharoah galloped into the hearts of United States sports fans by claiming the first Triple Crown in 37 years, Nyquist is now dreaming of similar glory following his Derby victory.
“Nyquist is just so unique, and he just gives off a vibe like no other, and then he follows up that confident vibe with just wonderful performances”, O’Neill said.
The break between the first two legs of the Triple Crown is five days shorter.
His selection as the best horse in the field was justified, according to Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who will saddle new shooter Collected.
“I would be surprised if (Nyquist) didn’t win”, Baffert told bloodhorse.com. “He’s going to be tough to beat”.
When it comes to Nyquist winning the 141st Preakness at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday, his undefeated record is not the only factor that makes the Kentucky-bred colt a heavy favorite.
Based on pace analysis, Derby runner-up Exaggerator is the horse most likely to benefit from the makeup of the race, though as Nyquist displayed in the winning the Derby, he is a horse that can chase quick splits and keep going. “And he doesn’t like to lose”. The Hall of Famer who guided American Pharoah to the Triple Crown a year ago also has a remarkable knack of sensing how a race will shake out.
Exaggerator, the 3-1 second choice, may be the most accomplished mudder in the field.
It’s not cockiness. But Desormeaux knows he has a good horse, and people who know horses and who have watched him train know that he’s a legitimate competitor.
“When I tackled him in the San Vicente coming to him twice the speed that he was going, he just jumped into the forward speed with me”, Desormeaux said. While that may not make for a big payout for those laying a few dollars on him, it could set up another potential Triple Crown finish at the upcoming Belmont Stakes if he can deliver on the odds. “That could be tactically advantageous for us”. And Nyquist has beaten him all four times they’ve met.
“You don’t want to overdo it”, O’Neill said “At the same time, you don’t want to tiptoe into a race either”. Exaggerator is 0-for-4 against the top choice and Collected gets a slight edge for third with Baffert.
“He’s really fast”, said Baffert.
These differences, however, may be the kind of straws you grasp at when you’re trying to talk yourself into a long shot. As much as half an inch may soak ancient Pimlico by 6:45 p.m., post time for the big race.
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“It would not be great, but everybody has to run on it”, Lani’s trainer Mikio Matsunaga said of a possible wet track. UNCLE LINO, LAOBAN and ABIDING STAR should all be contesting the early pace.
