A hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Joaquin early Wednesday morning found category 1 force winds of almost 80 miles per hour, making the storm an official hurricane. Right now, it seems increasingly likely that the center of the storm will move towards the east coast.
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What is certain is the storm is expected to strengthen through the weekend thanks to decreasing wind shear and Joaquin spending an extended period of time over very warm waters.
Forecasters expected the storm to drop about 3-5 inches (8-13 centimeters) in the central Bahamas, including Long Island and Exuma.
There are mixed forecasts on whether or not the eye of the hurricane will hit the already waterlogged eastern seaboard, but heavy rain is expected from the Carolinas northward up the coast.
“Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene proved that you do not have to be near the coast to be impacted by Mother Nature”, Cuomo said Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 miles per hour with higher gusts.
It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the USA, the report said. Many US computer forecast models predict a hit on the East Coast next week, anywhere from the Carolinas to more northern Mid-Alantic states.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Wednesday urged residents to prepare for a possible slamming by Hurricane Joaquin and to listen to state alerts they can receive on their cellphones. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty with this storm”.
“There is so much tropical moisture, we will get 10 inches of rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic (in the next seven days) – and that’s with a miss”, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
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All weather models indicate that at least five inches of rain could fall in the area by Monday. Even if Joaquin does not make landfall, minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely at the beaches. Flash flood watches are posted in New York State and New England, the National Weather Service said. It is not out of the question that such a scenario could produce flooding on the scale of a few of the greatest storms to ever affect the region, like Agnes in 1972.
